Thursday, March 17, 2011

Where Can I Hide All My Tv Cables

Basile theory of industrial policy

In a famous speech in honor of Alan Greenspan as a result of his departure as Federal Reserve Chairman U.S., Mervyn King developed what he called the Maradona theory of interest rates.


Mal translating and summarizing the words of King, in the classic second goal against the British in 86, Maradona left behind five straight running defenders from midfield because the defenders were running waiting for Diego dribble. According to him (King, not Maradona), monetary policy under Greenspan operated the same way: the markets reacted in anticipation of the central bank's response, eliminating the need for a sharp rise in interest rates. In the words of King: "the market WAS doing the work for us." (We now know that Greenspan was far from being Maradona, and an abandonment attitude in this and other areas of their business, helped to generate the greatest global financial crisis in 50 years.)

paraphrase Mervyn King, high dollar could refer to as the "theory of industrial policy Basile." If it is incorrect to assume that the high dollar was a policy from the beginning (in fact, was the result of the run of 2002), from 2003, at least in words, the high dollar was blessed as a tool for development of sectors industry less competitive, often referring to the Asian export model. However, as noted in the previous post, except few cases, the industry does not seem to have progressed on this front, growing its external deficit (and dropping their expopartaciones gross) pari passu to the appreciation of the peso as if ten years of exchange rate "competitive" would not have had the greatest impact. (In the chart, "other goods" denotes manufactured goods, including primary source.)


This unease about the growing export primarization (which exceeds the Argentine neighborhood debate) seems to be due to a truncated, Macroeconomic somewhat of industrial policy in an export model. All the high dollar bet is como pensar que con tener los mejores jugadores del mundo basta, que es suficiente sacarlos a la cancha y pedirles que pongan huevos. Así como el puro talento no es sustituto del plan de juego, el dólar alto no es sustituto de la política industrial.

Lo curioso es que, tras la crisis, el gobierno insinuó algunos de los elementos propios de una política industrial activa (reforzando la secretaría PyME, fondeando la investigación básica, explorando la formación de clusters productivos o el lanzanmiento de un banco de desarrollo) pero con el tiempo (difícil pensar en una fecha cierta) se fueron conformando con una suerte de piloto automático, como sedado por el éter de los dólares sojeros and give me two inflationary euphoria. So much so that in a radicalization of the theory Basile, the current Secretary of Economic Policy tuiterizó recently that "Argentina is competitive without relying on appreciation or depreciation."

Play! Run! Put eggs!

0 comments:

Post a Comment