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The mirage of similarities (or the opposition alfonsinización)

In times of "tension" (a term grating if any), the call for dialogue and convergence is expected and even welcomed. But as a distinguished colleague protested flawlessly in this praise of discens , down with style convergence Miss Congeniality (after all, who is not in favor of world peace?) That hide a miscalculated attempt by some media and business groups to put together an agreement antikirchnerista devoid of substance (which only enhances the uniqueness of the ruling).

Gone with the rugged experiment of Group A and, again, with the rugged exploits of the candidate of consensus (a consensus that he painted more like a half a world on the hunt for votes scattered and diverse, than a program that ensures convergence their survival post-election).

It seems that the consensus is back in vogue in the media. This convergence with forceps occurs almost by default: failed terrañizar attempts the race around a candidate more elastic (ie, more "centrist", ie, an SUV that could catalyze the conservative vote), Plan B is to stretch the image of Alfonsin despite resistance own candidate.

much smaller in scale, the emphasis with matching economic proposals, dividing the debate between the rational (which should be listed in the column behind a candidate to represent the sensible center, etc.) And another (a government autistic and authoritarian in the process of radicalization, etc.).

However, a quick covered by epidermal expressions of candidates on economic issues then reveals differences, which deepen to move from the obvious (you have to lower inflation) to the less obvious (how?). (What say even more sensitive topics such as security.)

macrismo The recent rotation into a sort of magical popumonetarismo is a reflection of this trend. It is the intention of this post insist that I think about , or discuss the economy from the beginnings of a discourse that has more than proselytizing (as a distinguished colleague has commented here ) than economic (beyond monetarist faith that a central banker conservative and a priori contractionary monetary policy can reduce inflation to single digits with a shock of credibility, without any adjustment or economic cost).

The mirror that returns the media distorts the policy debate, stretching the images to a core consensus that in reality there is not among leaders and among voters, something that otherwise is a healthy sign that the demand of man Street exceeds the government reductionist vs. antagonism. opposition.

From this point of view, the danger is less consensus, but the progressive rhetoric of macrismo alfonsinización or potential Alfonsin macrinización the end of distorting the virtues of each candidate.

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The Unbearable Lightness of the economy (in the election campaign)

Here it is, complete the slip which compiled the sayings of the "candidates" (endangered species if any) on economic issues (inflation, industrial policy, pension reform) and gancheros (football for all, Aerolineas Argentinas). A map imperfect and ephemeral, as always, but a good picture of what it is.

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what these reserves (as the "candidates")

In advance of the work to prepare together with a colleague from CIPPEC (we will try to come out to light before the rapid decline in the number of candidates condemning him to a piece of time), I transcribe the table on the use and abuse of international reserves -theme in which all sorts of colorful proposals, viz.


As shown, there are those who reject the use of the reserves tax on the basis of legal arguments (to preserve the formal independence of the Central Bank as the CC or PRO), or to avoid an alleged inflationary effect (GEN, Rodriguez Saa)-which, as noted on this site more than once, should not exist if fund reserves and expenditure budget. In between, are located Alfonsin, Solá and PS, which accept the use of reserves to pay foreign creditors, under the supervision the National Congress in order to avoid a costly market access, not without noting that the difficulties of access to financial markets are a reflection of the failure of government policy on this front.

Interestingly, several candidates go even further than the ruling party and suggested the use of the reservations and to service external debt (or, strictly speaking, the fiscal deficit), but to finance the housing market (Cobos ) or the productive development (Duhalde, Sanz), "as they do in developed countries" (Solanas).

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The decade

mid last year, Luis Alberto Moreno, IDB President, published a editorial in the Financial Times warning that had been the decade in Latin America. A couple months later the Economist echoed a special report in the same direction.

The truth is that the hard numbers call into question the foundations of much excitement to the region. Beyond the visible progress on the macro front financial (debt reduction, de-dollarization, monetary stability and exchange rate), the growth-inflation mix that favored our Asian counterparts do not seem to be changing too. For the current five years, the forecasts (in this case IMF) are planning one or two points of growth for emerging Asia "Even excluding China of Asia combined (composed of Korea, the Philippines, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand), and adding to Argentina (not including the Economist) to the Latino dream team (along with Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay). Inflation also looks back over the eastern tigers' (and this by taking our official CPI).


The reasons for this forecast unflattering are several, including a modest investment rate and a product increasingly skewed to serve the domestic market (which contributes little to productivity), and a growing deficit on the formation human capital.

The funny thing is that the hype (and the self-promotion) you are creating problems for the region, including a tsunami of speculative capital that you appreciate their currencies and finances its trade deficits reintroducing financial dependence of the region had been fought in the 2000s. And managing expectations (in fact, the need to reduce non-inflationary growth levels, which in the region are not too high) is complicated when the world gets on the early American globe: for example, with what face can Dilma convince voters that should grow to 5% if the business press, eager to generate headlines, grouped with China and India.

In any case, everything would indicate that the decade will again be Asian American.

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Asian American will again Cristina: Is the upper stage kirchnerismo?

On Tuesday I had the honor to eat and drink for free in the room or study / wine bar multicultural GPS, a civil partnership in order to "contribute to building and strengthening of practical actors and institutions that deepen and expand to achieve democracy and social justice "etc. A group of young Cristinas, professional, moderately transverse (in other words, the best type of Kirchner) who bet on deepening model in form (as I understand) of a political frame construction + slogans aggiornamiento + economic improvement in the quality of management.


The next day, chatting with a former colleague wanted denarvaista kirchnierista today, I predicted that, to win CFK, after the elections came a deepening model in the form of an advance on the private sector alla "ANSES directors" + partial or total nationalization of large media companies + intervention + National Grain Board + other pests, the intensity of all of which (I add, based on versions of this story after hearing from colleagues) would depend on the narrowest of margins to sustain without tugging a growth rate several points giving up our engine overheated production (or, alternatively, a political model that still depends critically on the generation of distributable surpluses, which in turn requires a growth rate ...). Always

nuances, of course. Especially since there are different views within the government (or so it seems at this point). But given the orphans of themes and ideas of the anorexia of this election, this kind of speculation may even be more informative about the future.

Then, (for want of a concise) modern liberalism (1) or chavizacion (2)? (My answer: I do not know, but, unlike 2007 when he was not expecting anything, Today I put my hope and chips (1)).

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Effectiveness of controls: A picture is worth ... Animal




According to this chart controls reduce carry the Brazilian real in about 6% (ie, the difference between the interest rate differential in real-Selic-and dollar - 0.25% - and the interest rate implicit in the forward). No small feat. (Note that the recent appreciation of the real, reflecting a higher intensity of capital inflows, has intensified the effect of controls, which are a kind of automatic reducer).

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factory (or supermarket in the world)

exploration Following previous post, is another compressed picture of evolution of manufacturing output (similar but not identical in the industrial, which includes other things), showing their level relative to total output in 1990, 2003 (in honor of our post-crisis) and 2009.


As you can see, it has been losing ground in LAC7 (at the hands of the service sector), counter to what happened in Asia.


Without going to carve on controversial definitions, one would tend to think that while industrialized Asia LAC7 deindustrialization (or, in the 2000s, stabilized at lower levels of industrialization Asians). If this proposition does not trigger the anger of the reader, one might keep saying that from now on Asia should begin to show the pattern more intensive service at the time showed the most advanced economies after industrialization. So, it appears that the decade latinoameticana be back in Asia.

(One commenter mentioned that as an alternative to industrialization, the region, or at least Argentina, could become the world's supermarket gancheros although somewhat vague concept. The food industry is, after all, industry, As the above analysis does not escape, and there seems to have exhibited more dynamic than the rest, perhaps, precisely because the boom commodity boom is also the cost of inputs in this industry. In any case, an issue to return.)

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Argentina on the industrialization

In a couple of recent posts commenting on the disappointing performance of our industrial exports, and linking to the Dutch disease and the almost total absence of national industrial policies-beyond the high dollar pair & low rates but do not guarantee that facilitate productive investment (and even you can play against, as illustrated by the recent dynamics of low rates of consumption boom, inflation and real appreciation).


Following these comments, a reader suggested that it would incomplete falling net exports confused with poor industrial performance. Sure enough: an industrial policy may well be short on the external front, if the period of growth coincides with a sharp increase in imports of capital goods. And even can point to no external competitiveness, but the distribution of primary income through the generation of quality employment (the industry tends to generate on average more qualified and better-paid services, which, as noted on occasion can live from Chile to copper, but Argentina has too much population to live in soy).

What can we say about these two aspects of industrialization, in particular, sometimes re-industrialization ruling party put forward by economists as an emblem of the model, and largely feared industrialization of the emerging world following Chinese Dutch disease? Far from encouraging.
After a steady decline in the 90s, accelerated the crisis of 1999-2001 and partially reversed in the recovery of 2002-2004, industrial employment has not stopped shrinking as a percentage of total employment, measured both in the formal universe ( white) and taking the most comprehensive sample of the Permanent Household Survey.


This contraction produced a hand fall in the "industrial raw": the industrial worker paid plus over other sectors, having rebounded in 2003-2005 with the growth of the undervalued currency and (the latter, by the highest industry tradable component ) lost ground to achieve (apart from the ups and downs of the last crisis) to 2003 levels.


Both stories are consistent with an industrial product, again leaving aside the epiphenomenon of the crisis and recovery of the Century), has not stopped falling throughout the period as a percentage of GDP.


So far, the arguments validate deindustrialization hypothesis implied in my previous post. But this hypothesis (which may be developed targeting both the government failed to take advantage of hedging a benign context for development, as pointing to an adverse Dutch disease context of industrial development, which inhibited only the high dollar until inflation inertial reached double digits), you can tell a story incomplete.

First, when looking at this film from further back we see that the process of deindustrialization has been a visible pattern in times of dollar and inflation of all kinds. In fact, forcing a little empirical argument, could be said that in recent years the process, although not stopped, slowed.


The other fact to keep in mind is that this pattern is not specific to Argentina, but a feature of the entire region. As I search the data to illustrate the latter, leave two disturbing assumptions essential to the debate on national and regional development.

(i) A recent World Bank report notes that the quality premium (the wage differential between high and low employment grade) dropped (good from the standpoint of income distribution), the effect of lower demand for skilled labor. How qué punto estamos perdiendo nuestra celebrado capital humano frente a los emergentes asiáticos?

(ii) En un panel en el que me tocó participar la semana pasada en Washington, un colega del BID mencionaba, a raíz de la enfermedad holandesa (y las esperables pero no por eso menos preocupantes protestas de los economistas ortodoxos de la región sobre las intervenciones y controles cambiarios) que tal vez hayamos perdido la ventana de la industrialización y a los productores de commodities nos toque ser el granero del mundo.

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Last round for the international lender of last resort (or the paradox of early warning)

Ayer me tocó exponer otra vez mis ideas sobre el diseño de un prestamista de última instancia internacional, que provea dólares the economies (emerging and others) who suffer a crisis in global foreign output (written in his latest incarnation, these ideas are here ).


This time the presentation was for the IMF working group spent more than two years to improve the supply of the body, responsible for the creation of many acronyms: FCL (Flexible Credit Line), HAPA (a Stand By with conditionality lite and ambiguous connotations name in Castilian), PCL (a lite HAPA) and the unborn GSM (Global Stabilization Mechanism), which proposes to give in times of crisis automatic access to the liquidity of the Fund to a group of countries systemic (Latin America, Brazil and Mexico)-a substitute for the always uncertain help of the Federal Reserve.

Of all these inventions, the GSM is undoubtedly the most innovative, simply because it is the only one that provides one-stop access to liquidity without a formal solicitd to leave the country at the mercy of the IMF Board awkward and uncertain than last crisis emerging solvents mostly ignoring the roots prevented bids Fund.

Predictably, it was the automatic access-that is, the reluctance of the Board of the IMF to its members to receive money without going through the examination table, that ball the proposal. The funny thing is that in this case was wrongly called BRICs those who put the stick in the wheel.

The GSM provides automatic access in times of crisis. For this access is predictable (for the markets will anticipate and not charged against the assets of the beneficiary country) is needed then a trigger simple and transparent (a crisis determination mechanisms which in turn activate the GSM and access these countries). However, this requires the IMF to design a thermometer that in times of financial stress, announce to everyone that entered global crisis, possibly, many think, worsening deepening panic and run.

The dilemma is not unlike the paradox of early warning models and the dilemma of IMF financial monitor, I tend to lose some time in my classes. In short, if we knew that the model is 100% accurate alert, the alert would not be early because when delivering the signal around the world would be anticipating the inevitable crisis. Similarly, if the IMF detects that a country (eg Thailand in 1997) is heading towards a crisis, a crisis may trigger notice, leaving the IMF as the main culprit (especially if there was any chance that the crisis is not materialize, the so-called type II statistical error).

In the case of GSM, the countries involved seem to have chosen to recognize the crisis when it is obvious and the advert can not add more information. That is, recognizing too late, when financial assistance operates literally as a safety net, which cushions the blow, but does not prevent (in this case, avoidable) falling into the void.

The last round around this issue is likely this summer, with a view to launching a proposal at the next annual meeting of the Fund. But without emerging on the table, the chances are not good.

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Tower Records already closed some years ago, and now it fell to Borders, which I imagine will survive as a virtual library. Yesterday, the local 18 and L looked like a stock table (which, moreover, what it was). Another reason for not returning to Washington. Amid the desolation

I was struck by the conspicuous presence of women writers from the remnants of fiction titles. Men will sell more, less or published age better?

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BLEP (a version of the multilateral non-Latin American situation)

Went last Latin American Report Brookings we prepare to Mauricio Cardenas and a list of distinguished colleagues in the region. In the same cover from the experimentation in exchange rate policies to the acronyms zoos in vogue to distinguish emerging economies, through snapshots of the situation and editorials on the main Latin American countries. In short, material that will be deepened and fried in later posts.

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Mainstreaming (snapshots on significant policy gaps Argentina)

(After all, if Zizek can preach about the global crisis ...)

What is an empty signifier (word crept into this column Beatriz Sarlo no further explanation for the lay reader suffered )?


The discourse associated with this concept of fashion can be (or become) complex (or cryptic), as insinuated in this interview its inventor, Ernesto Laclau (a sort of Mammals Stiglitz of policies). Not to mention the original texts on the subject, deliberately -muddled protecting knowledge by creating a jargon jargon that might be called "rhetorical barriers to entry."

This is not a philosophy blog, so simplify. What is an empty signifier? In short, inappropriate words, if the signifier is the support of a meaning, a vacuum is a significant significvante meaningless, or more precisely, one that tolerates different meanings, possibly different and even contradictory. In vulgar terms, a blank screen on which the subject project their desires or demands of social groups.

us simplify further defining the term so obvious (in pictures) ...

Example 1: Mother Russia


Example 2: The default


Example 3: The people



Example 4: The charismatic leader (the statesman accidental)


Example 5: The monopoly


Example 6: The cross


Example 7: The opposition


Example 8: The cross

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Le Grand Macabre (II)

Waiting at the Columbus beginning of the interesting version desorquestrada Grand Macabre by Ligeti in Columbus, Paula, my 16 year old daughter, who accompanies me, ask me what year is the opera. The reason: in the first pages of the program, where one finds an overview of the context of the work and the characteristics of their staging, set paths editorial producer of the work and the director of Columbus clarifying the conflicts which the work could not be released in Argentina, etc. "As the poster of the highway," Paula tells me. As if anyone really cares, I think.

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Le Grand Macabre (I)

Returning to see the interesting version desorquestrada Ligeti's Grand Macabre at the Columbus (start of the Fura more bizarre than even the argument of the opera), zapping in front of the TV I meet the following dialogue.

Maximiliano Montenegro: In Brazil and Uruguay unions negotiated increases of 6% and 24% here. Is not it a sign of a double-digit inflation?
Vice Minister of Economy: No, it reflects the relative bargaining power of unions.

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inflation Why (not) a problem?

No matter how many laps we give, it is clear that inflation will not gain or lose an election. For starters, the issue is among the concerns of people but is far from being exclusive (and loses to security, both physically and, I suspect, labor). On the other hand, as punctuated here, candidates are not willing to go to the heart of the matter.


In his speeches argue that inflation is high (actually, technically, is moderate), is on the rise (in fact, if not repeat the shock meat and if the government continues to contain expenditure growth below 30%, is comparable if not lower than 2010), hurts the poor people (actually, yes, but the government holds the power to emparda the loss of purchasing power increases and retirement AUH minimum and are being delayed, and informal employment remains, severely underrepresented in the current political map), and other harmless niceties.

But the purpose of determining what they will do, no one will put the bell the cat: the closest thing to a proposal is to increase investment, which is not really a proposal as it would not grow more or be happier but also involving Daode increase aggregate demand, inflation is indeed in the short term. (Nothing against the investment, we must increase the quantity and quality, but because its effect on supply is felt only in the medium term, would not qualify as an "anti-inflationary policy.") In any case, no adjustment, cooling, slowdown or other references to mechanical physics.

is true that nobody likes the word fit, but why inflation is here a political lightweight when neighbors such as Brazil, Peru and Uruguay can easily decide an election, thus justifying the Lula government has spender preserved real double-digit rates, or the former hyperinflationary Alan Garcia has thrown a rconomía minister for not being able to explain the impact of commodity shocks on inflation Peruvian?

I submit for consideration by the readers a hypothesis is simple: demand inflation. The history of inflation and regional hyperinflation was always associated with crisis: inflation rising, and the output and employment fell. And there is nothing more important to the average voter than employment. The Argentina crisis of 1999-2002 was unusual in this respect: thanks to the success "excessive" one to one, we had a recession without inflation (in fact, deflation was part of the problem), then a recovery that quickly turned inflationary (inflation was beginning to show his head back in 2004). And the average voter is likely to correlate contemporary experience: the debt crisis of 1989 was not bad habit of over-indebtedness of the dictatorship, but because of Alfonsin and Surrouille, and the blame for the crisis was not Menem but De la Rua and Cavallo. Similarly, inflation of the 2000s is perceived (not without reason) as a direct consequence of growth for the detail-without the negative aspects that have on future growth, which the man in the street wisely left to the government, something that pays the salary.

So the question on inflation becomes a dilemma: I would prefer lower inflation, but not at the expense of lower growth. In other words, if for each 10% inflation must sacrifice 1% of growth (more than generous approach), with the risk work, he prefers to do nothing. A this also helps that the private labor market has lost the dynamism of the 2000s, in part by the effects of inflation on industrial competitiveness and the creation of skilled jobs.

Therefore, it is understood that the candidate offers lower inflation over growth (investment)-electoral economy oxymoron if any. So, too, the fact that inflation will not define this election, though it could define the next.

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Dutch Disease of real estate?

Another unnecessary neologism? Maybe. But for summarizing metonymically two or three concepts that are going around (at least in my humble kit knowledge) to characterize one of the problems (not only) of the Argentine real estate market.


Dutch disease is characterized mainly by the effect of wealth from one sector (traditionally, raw materials, either due to higher productivity, the discovery of new gas reserves is an extreme example-or higher prices-for example, the Chindia factor in grain) to another sector (relatively less productive or defendant, traditionally tradable industry, producing for export or import substitution) through increased domestic prices in dollars (the type exchange), reflecting the greater wealth of the whole (The country) at the expense of one party (the sector less productive or defendant). This would generate deindustrialisation (primarization, another neologism!), Industrial unemployment (with increased employment in the service sector, and here comes a whole line of discussion on the relative ratings between sectors) and at least in the transition, income redistribution and wealth.

continue the analogy, one might think that the greater relative wealth of a sector increases the price of certain goods, generating a negative spill on the non beneficiaries. This effect would be amplified if the property in question becomes an alternative savings generated speculative demand adding to the natural demand for population growth.

More specifically? The commodities boom that benefits the owner of a field (which, being the highly inelastic supply of land, appropriates most of the increase in terms of exchange) combined with the use of brick as an alternative investment (in a context of moderate inflation, expectations of appreciation, depressed rates, and the impossibility of indexing) may be pushing the property prices in prime locations (chosen by preserving the value and depth to the time of renting or otherwise dispose of the unit), shedding This property inflation to area and property-oriented sectors with labor income, no savings (ie, no assets that can benefit from the wealth effect), go away the possibility of the roof itself.

} More simple? An increase in the price of soybeans could drive the purchase of the house.

Several quick points to not trap the discussion on false dilemmas:

1. The partial effect is described: a serious analysis can not ignore that soy (in general, the external surplus) has contributed to macroeconomic conditions for the increase in formal employment and income.

2. In addition, soy has contributed, through the withholdings, the fiscal surplus allowed to pursue policies that benefited not only income to the poor (who also have access to more complex problems) but also to upper-middle sectors through the grant of service fees (in addition to having contributed to the fiscal surplus generated macroeconomic conditions etc).

3. Dutch disease is added to the negative effect of inflation on the speculative demand for brick and on the initial cost of a mortgage, discussed in previous post.

The regressive effect of a real estate boom is not unknown. The boom in gringo or European capitals seriously hit the purchasing power of the middle classes Despite the (illusory) easier access to mortgage credit.

But our case is different, closer to the traditional Dutch disease, in which improvement in one sector to another sector negatively affected. The closest we got to see me about was the running of the line quality in Washington, DC, or Manhattan, where the improvement in the management of the city attracted wealthy suburbs, forced off-line quality to neighborhoods - and moving out to low-income people could no longer afford the high rents.

Naturally, the assessment of the economic importance of this effect (how much?) not obvious, but requires empirical effort that left some enthusiastic volunteer.

To close, a question that a distinguished colleague left me tweet: Are withholdings, to mitigate the local impact of the commodities boom, mitigate the Dutch disease?