mid last year, Luis Alberto Moreno, IDB President, published a editorial in the Financial Times warning that had been the decade in Latin America. A couple months later the Economist echoed a special report in the same direction. The truth is that the hard numbers call into question the foundations of much excitement to the region. Beyond the visible progress on the macro front financial (debt reduction, de-dollarization, monetary stability and exchange rate), the growth-inflation mix that favored our Asian counterparts do not seem to be changing too. For the current five years, the forecasts (in this case IMF) are planning one or two points of growth for emerging Asia "Even excluding China of Asia combined (composed of Korea, the Philippines, India, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand), and adding to Argentina (not including the Economist) to the Latino dream team (along with Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, Peru and Uruguay). Inflation also looks back over the eastern tigers' (and this by taking our official CPI).
The reasons for this forecast unflattering are several, including a modest investment rate and a product increasingly skewed to serve the domestic market (which contributes little to productivity), and a growing deficit on the formation human capital.
The funny thing is that the hype (and the self-promotion) you are creating problems for the region, including a tsunami of speculative capital that you appreciate their currencies and finances its trade deficits reintroducing financial dependence of the region had been fought in the 2000s. And managing expectations (in fact, the need to reduce non-inflationary growth levels, which in the region are not too high) is complicated when the world gets on the early American globe: for example, with what face can Dilma convince voters that should grow to 5% if the business press, eager to generate headlines, grouped with China and India.
In any case, everything would indicate that the decade will again be Asian American.
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